The Future of Prediction Markets is Decision Markets!

Duration: NaN:NaN:NaN

Speaker: Clément Lesaege, Devansh Mehta

Type: Workshop

Expertise: No prior knowledge

Event: Devcon

Date: Nov 2026

This talk will map the emerging design space of decision markets: prediction markets built not just to forecast events, but to improve decisions. It will cover: - Asset futarchy, which measures the expected price impact of a decision. - Metric futarchy, which forecasts KPIs conditional on choices. - Opportunity markets, which help filter large decision spaces. - Risk pricing, which makes long-term tail risks easier to evaluate. - Distilled human judgement, which scales expert evaluation by resolving only a subset of items while markets price the rest. The key takeaway is that Polymarket and Kalshi are only the beginning: I expect prediction markets to become a fundamental economic primitive for governance, funding, risk assessment, and prioritisation. The talk synthesises system design and implementation work from Seer, Kleros, Butter, MetaDAO, futarchy.fi, Robin Hanson, Vitalik Buterin, and Dave White.